Saturday, October 24, 2009

Don't Divide by Zero, or,

What's a Library to Do When People Don't Read



Dear Diary: Let's do a little catch-up so as to not leave people (as if anyone actually reads this) hanging in suspense over things I've mentioned in the past.

First, shortly after we spent $110 for a County building permit, the fine folks from Sheds USA brought and assembled our 8x12 foot Cedar Shed. It Has Been Decided that the outside will be left to weather on its own, but I decided that since it's just much too dark and gloomy inside due to the tiny little windows, I would paint the interior white. Due in part to the fact that I didn't feel much like spending more than an hour or two per day painting it, and also because the wood is so thirsty, it took me about five days to complete the job.

Now it's a lot easier to see things, and to provide illumination in all weather and without needing to get another permit (and pay an electrician) to run AC power out to the shed, I sent off for some Sylvania® Solar DOT-it® Lights. These work as advertised and I am so please with the product that I recommend that one should be hanging in the window of every car and truck to provide maintenance-free emergency lighting.

Even though this shed wasn't built from scratch by Yours Truly, any shed worthy of the name must of course become a Manly Project if only for a short time, and so I may just have to spend some time with power tools and shelving kits in order to get it organized the way I prefer.

Secondly, the unrelenting Freak Show and Welcome Wagon and Walking Tour of Weirdos and Wackos has relented somewhat, or perhaps it's more the case that I hardly ever come out of the house unless I can avoid it; either way, I'm hearing less audible evidence of the simmering stew of stalkers and snitches circulating slander. (I do believe that sentence constitutes use of "consonance".)

This is not to be understood by the Astute Reader to mean that scheming scoundrels no longer sneak and plot -- and it's always a toss-up as to whether this goes on because reasonable people think there's a problem, or because some people's mentality warps them to need to declare victims and organize some "cause stalking" by rumormongering whatever they think will best gain them followers, or because this is what people do when they're bored half to death and are most easily amused by bothering other people for no good reason -- but rather the Astute Reader should understand from this that I'm not hearing it so much. I'm sure that it may be widely understood that when stupid stuff is happening and it seems to be directed at me in whole or in part, I do bitch about it and bitch about it relentlessly and won't shut up about it until something is done; that might mean that people might still be out there fucking with anyone they can get to, but are leaving me out of the targeting because they don't want my bitching to spoil all of their fun. I'm leaning towards the latter as an explanation, people being people and the County's public mental healthcare system being both broken and underfunded as well as not quite comprehending of the scale, scope, and magnitude of the problems they really need to address, and by means other than throwing prescriptions at people who prefer to be assholes.

Third, whether it was someone at County Council reading this and prodding those responsible, or if it was me sending multiple notifications via the County website to PEPCO, the streetlight at my corner seems to no longer be cycling on and off. Yay for our tax and utility dollars at work to promote public safety! Now I can go back to sleeping in instead of having to get up early to keep an eye on the bus-stop.


At my recent ill-fated first-time visit to a meeting of the Aspen Hill Library Advisory Committee, I heard a lot of things.

Those in attendance probably mostly think I talk too much, especially for someone who is just a mere citizen and not one of the membership of that august and publicly-elected body. Yet in between running my mouth, I have large ears that work well and I also know how to listen, as I am in fact a practitioner of that sadly demoted art.

Among other concerns was what ever would become of "the library as we know it", speaking less of the Aspen Hill branch and more of the institution itself.

Librarians, in general, have long been a bit curious -- not to mention rather concerned -- about the future of books. This opinion was voiced at this meeting by branch chief librarian Edward "Ed" Trever, and in one of my excessive spiels of unwarranted eruptions of verbiage, I managed to note in passing that for most people, they might tend to be supplanted by such things as the Amazon Kindle electronic book.

Librarians -- as well as their clientele -- have been quick to adopt non-book media such as film, audio and video tapes, and multimedia in other formats such as CDROM and DVD. Still, their primary media type is the printed word in bound paper, what most people call "books".

I do know something about libraries. I don't have a degree, but from the day the Aspen Hill library opened, I was a frequent visitor, and for several years running, I was in there most of the day during summertime, and for probably an hour or so a day at least every other day when school was in session. You see, I love to read, and back then, I really loved to read Science Fiction, and the Aspen Hill Library had a good SF section.

I think I read everything by Asimov, by Clarke, and by Heinlein. And therein lay the rub, to paraphrase Shakespeare. When Heinlein's Stranger in a Strange Land became circulated to the branch, I sat in the library and read about half of it, and then tried to check it out. The librarian balked.

This was adult fiction, and probably the most "adult" of anything circulating in the County libraries at the time. Hey, it had a Man from Mars being abducted from "protective custody" and given a bath by one of his kidnappers, who happened to be a nurse. Having never before seen a human female, he is fascinated by breasts and cops a feel. And that's just the beginning of racy escapades that were more than a bit risque for the 1960s, much less for the Montgomery County libraries, much less in a branch mostly serving blue-collar families from conservative religious traditions.

Since I was only about 10 years old, I didn't give a rat's ass about sexual content or how it might warp my fragile little mind:

All I cared about was that it had Martians.

That the novel was radically iconoclastic and from one of the most gifted if slightly-fascistic (in a very patriotic American way) writers of the middle 20th century, and that the novel was pretty much taking on organized religion, political institutions great and small, the way people perceive reality and are limited by it, and how humanity might be viewed with some concern by exceptionally powerful and utterly inhuman extraterrestrials, that didn't quite penetrate.

All I knew was that I had recently tested as reading at the same level of comprehension as a college freshman (by 1968 standards) at about 800 words a minute, and if I could read like an adult, I ought to be allowed to check out adult books.

The ensuing semi-legal policy battle dragged in all sorts of people, ending with me in the position of having to argue with higher-ups in the library system, aided in part by some of the librarians as well as my parents, who pretty much repeated my arguments to the higher-ups since the higher-ups declared that since I was a child they didn't have to listen to me and refused to do so.

At the age of 10 or 11 or so, I found myself making the argument that the Constitution's First Amendment rights to "freedom of the press" ought not to be curtailed by limiting access to printed materials. "Denial of access to the products of the press is no less odious than denial of the operation of the presses," was my argument. It carried.

I got to check out adult books from that time on, with my parents' approval and without much restriction at all from the librarians. You see, I was always one of their best customers; what they were "selling" was a marketplace of ideas in a storehouse of knowledge, and even when there was nobody else in the library besides the librarians, I was always -- or almost always -- there. Reading.

And how strange it is that in the modern day, if people think I'm so smart now, I was that smart when I was 10 or 11 and had to badger appointed officials with the Bill of Rights and was able to do so, just because I wanted to read about how a man might view the world, if they were seeing it for the first time after being raised to adulthood by Martians.

In a lot of ways, that's a story I can relate to, so to speak.

And in the end, I know and I know deeply -- having lived it -- what Libraries are for... and why.


To understand the library of the future, it's necessary to understand the library of the past.

To understand why we need libraries, I have to discuss concrete.

The Romans used a concrete back around 300 BC which is still with us today, and it's a more durable and weather-resistant form of concrete than anything we've had before 1995 or so. Sometime during the Dark Ages which began after the fall of the Roman Empire in the West, the secret of such concrete was lost until the mid-1700s, and it wasn't until 1824 that comparable cements were developed by John Smeaton, who gave us Portland Cement, to which aggregates were added to form modern concretes.

So how is it, that for more than a thousand years, nobody knew how to make concrete?

It's simple, really: the people who built things did not read, and if they read, had no access to libraries; those who had access to libraries and could and did read, had no interest in, or contact with, building and builders.

The builders of the Dark Ages and the early Enlightenment had cement of a sort, and concrete of a sort, but it was nothing like the Portland Cements of today, or the Roman cements of ages past. Probably this was because their trade secrets were passed down through the Guild, and these secrets were guarded jealously, and in the absence of sharing and peer review, secrets were lost and no progress was made.

If only they had libraries where anyone could walk in and research how the Romans made their strong and durable concrete, how much earlier might have come the Enlightenment?

When libraries are lost, with the books they contain, how much else is lost?

And how much might be lost, if we abandon paper books altogether, when electronically stored materials, or materials readable only with high levels of electronic technology, become useless after an EMP, an ElectroMagnetic Pulse?
These are the technologies
That will withstand
Electromagnetic pulse:
A lawn-mower engine, if
Magneto fired
A bicycle generator
If so desired
A wire-spring rat trap
Is guaranteed, but
The rest of civilization's
Gonna be on its knees



Of course, everyone who has heard of Jessica Alba remembers that electromagnetic pulse effectively destroyed western civilization (at least in North America) in her series "Dark Angel":

Ah, Miss Alba, giving new meaning to the phrase "be kind to your neighbors, even though they be Transgenic Chimerae."


I have a library, myself.

You may wish to see a photo of the science-fiction paperback section.

The thing about my little science fiction paperback section is this: a lot of those books contain stories about how, after the collapse of civilization, intrepid barbarians (who just happen to be able to read a little) stumble across one of the few remaining libraries.

Armed with superior knowledge -- acquired after mere months of reading encyclopedias and other references -- they develop technology and strategy and tactics superior to their competitors, and promptly become victors, warlords, kings, and founders of Civilization Version 2.0.

The Aspen Hill Library -- and most any other library -- has shelf after shelf full of books telling them about the future of libraries. Hint: go look in the science-fiction section.

This may be one of the most demonstrative cases of "all of the answers to the question of what the libraries have been, are, should be, and will likely be, are already on the shelves of the libraries". Yet a lot of the people looking for answers to "what shall become of the libraries?" aren't even aware of what they have on their own shelves: the answers to their question.


Inquiring minds want to know: how is it that I know in which of the library's books are the answers to the questions of what shall become of the library? And how is it that the librarians do not?

Perhaps encouraging people to roust me out of the library isn't such a good idea, after all.


Ultimately, the library will be what you are using to read this blog: networked information systems and data retrieval devices.

But is that the real library?

Let's say that I have a set of CDROMs that contain the whole of the latest Encyclopedia Britannica.

It's much more voluminous, much more comprehensive, and far more filled with useful information than would be any paper encyclopedia, unless perhaps you wanted a paper encyclopedia that filled up most of a library reference section and required three to five bound volumes for each letter of the alphabet.

Let's say that I have a 20-volume set of the 1956 "American People's Encyclopedia".

The "AEP" is 50 years out of date; it's older than I am. It's paper, it's not electronically searchable, and there are whole townships within 20 miles of me which do not exist on its atlas maps.

It barely has the concept of "computer", and has only a two-paragraph article on the "transistor" along with a picture of a human hand holding a germanium crystal. By contrast, the central-processing chip of the computer reading that "EB on DVD" encyclopedia has about 80-million transistors on a chip too small for the human hand to handle. Yet the AEP has about ten pages of detail on the manufacture and use of vacuum tubes in electronics, and many more pages on the math underlying the manufacture and use of vacuum tubes.

Electromagnetic pulse is exceptionally damaging to transistors. The more and smaller the transistors, the greater the damage. And while it is possible for a competent hobbyist to make their own vacuum tubes -- a lot of musicians were reduced to that when they needed replacement parts for older amplifiers, after the western world stopped manufacturing vacuum tubes -- it isn't possible to repair high-density integrated circuits. Robots had to make smaller robots which made smaller robots which made robots small enough to manufacture the high-density ICs.

Should the library continue to expend large amounts of money modernizing, moving ever more deeply into a system utterly dependent on really rather delicate technologies that will all be junk after an electromagnetic pulse?

Of course they should! It's what people want, what people need, it's competitive, and failure to adopt and deploy it makes for an uncompetitive environment.

But let's not go throwing out all of the paper books...

Because when the light go out all across the country and stay inoperable for perhaps years at a time, it would be nice to have something to read by candlelight, assuming that one survives the total collapse of the computer-driven logistical systems which alone enable just-in-time shipment of food stocks and other non-durable goods.

The Encyclopedia Britannica on DVD might have the sum-total of the world's knowledge onboard, but if you can't read the information because you have no working computers on your continent, that's really not very helpful, now is it.


I thus propose that future library planning be split into two tracks.

The first track will continue along the lines of modernization, with the goal of being the most helpful to the most people in the way that is most useful to them: developing strategies whereby the library can offer the same sorts of information and content as are delivered by such things as the Amazon Kindle and comparable technologies which may be expected to emerge along a fairly consistent and predictable curve of technological advance and deployment.

The library can't easily beat the cost and access of home-based or even txting-cellphone internet. Nor should the library try to get into a price-point competition with such entities as Amazon or comparable content marketers. However, the library system may very well already have the beginnings of a powerful niche service; the "ask a librarian" program could be extended to Twitter or comparable txt-based networks and modes.

The second track for the libraries must be Durable Accessible Archiving and Indexing.

DAAI libraries will be something that the general public will almost certainly never see, except perhaps on the equivalent of school field-trips to the museum.

Extremely well-constructed and nearly maintenance-free buildings should be constructed on sites which are centrally located but not in the center of the markets, in much the same way that Armories used to be constructed three blocks out and over from city-center crossroads.

These buildings should be designed with the idea that they need to be functional with no electricity, at least during daylight hours. They need to be extremely defensible, at least against small arms. We should all pray that nobody ever sees the day when one of the most damaging strategic actions against an opponent would be denial of information through destruction of libraries, but it has happened before and might conceivably happen again.

Sites should be chosen above the 100 (or even 500 or 1000) year flood plain, yet also be situated so that wind-powered or even human-powered pumping can fill cisterns which should be kept full for purposes of fire-control should that become necessary.

All planning along this second track must operate under the slogan, "Libraries are, and should be, forever for posterity".

There should be overlapping and redundant collections which have a focus on establishing and fostering literacy, on elaborating a bottom-up progression of technology from the basics of smelting upwards to the technology of the 1950s/1960s before we became utterly dependent on technology that can be eliminated wholesale by easy-to-make EMP bombs, on the rediscovery of science and medicine made easy for people who have none.

It must be noted that it is quite possible, and probably very sensible, to move forward on both tracks at various single sites, although Track One may become much more deployed through data/voice networks and internet than by physical site development, though some physical site development is almost inevitable, for example to serve persons with disabilities, and to provide many of the social connections functions currently seen in the "old fashioned" sort of libraries and many of the modern libraries.

Track One (technology forward) libraries should also explore technical syntheses of internet and computational facilities with the traditional social modes of library usage. An example may be seen in the UK's University of Nottingham, Communications Research Group's decade-old and well-developed concept of Virtual Reality and Populated Information Terrains.

Visualizations of such populate information terrains are also to be found here.



That a lot of books floating in VR space, arranged by accuracy matches along three axes of search terms.

And a big shout-out to Dave Snowdon, PhD, a good online friend for the last decade.


Obviously, the present location of the Aspen Hill Library, with its endless water problems and open airy architecture and layout, will not be suitable for an archiving library.

However, Aspen Hill does have a perfect site for both a new and reconstructed Track One facility as well as a Track Two Durable Accessible Archiving and Indexing facility.

If anyone wants to discuss this with me after the Monday, October 26 2009 meeting of the Aspen Hill Civic Association, Inc., general membership meeting to be held at 7:30 in the Scary Basement Dungeon ahem Meeting Room at the Aspen Hill Library, just pop on over and leave me your card and we can take it to e-mail, because after all, babbling delusional autistics such as myself should be seen and not heard, at least in places of such dignity as the public library and in situations where my clear and unquestioned and highly-informed betters confer on matters of pomp and circumstance.


More to come?

Friday, October 23, 2009

A Bird in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush, Or

CARTHAGO DALENDA EST



Dear Diary: Despite the intermittently obscure ramblings that I feel I must tender to mercies of Posterity and the snickers and gestures of those who read, but do not understand -- and to those who only hear bad summaries from those who read but who do not understand -- my goal here is to carry on in the thankless task I have set myself.

I have decided that at least in the upcoming elections I shall not run again.

First, I would have to actually care about the people I would represent. In general, I can summarize my feelings on that matter with a cartoon popular with my fellow workers back in the day when I was a lowly clerk at an obscure Federal agency:
every day in every way
forces me to add
to the unfortunately long
list of people who can
just kiss my fat ass

This ought not to be taken to mean that I hate everyone, that I love no one, that I am an emotionally nonhuman sociopath, that I think everyone's out to get me (though not all, clearly enough are), or even that I'm not getting paid enough to critique finely-considered master plans, or even rank populist idiocy. There are some things that nobody can pay anyone enough to do, so I guess I have to do them for free.

Noblesse Oblige, as the French used to say: "Nobility has its obligations". Even the worst aristocrat in the most benighted backwoods shithole has to understand, even if you are universally despised there is still the obligation to work for the commonwealth and happiness of the masses. If the only way you can do that is to hire extra troops to go out and kick some ass, then that is what you do. If all you need to do is sit back and watch a record harvest come in, year after year as if never would there be a bad year or string of bad years, you can do that too.

But the difference between a good ruler and a bad ruler may simply be that the good ruler has good advisors and the bad ruler hasn't got anything but bad advice, and the worst of bad advice is bad advice that sounds good. For those who understand things best when they are an illustrative fable, rather than short declarative sentences, please see the Hans Christian Andersen story about the Emperor's New Clothes.

As for me, I shall try to limit my remarks to the type that can be understood by people who can't be made to understand with anything other than simple declarative sentences, whether the reason for that is that they have insufficient English, or have severe memory deficits that disable them from understanding grammar more complex than simple declarative sentences, or who perhaps have some other cognitive disorder that makes them incapable of comprehending allegory, analogy, metaphor, or even simile.

The Chinese master philosopher Confucius once told a very good, and hilarious, parable, very instructive in fact. But even Jesus the Nazirene found it too long and so in his phrasing it became "there are none so blind as those who would not see".

Yet even though "you can lead a horse to water, but you cannot make him drink", it would be inhumane when living in a desert to not bother to take the horse to water, even if he's a mean horse that likes to bite and kick you.


Cato the Elder, a Roman stateman and a great orator, finished most of his speeches with the statement "Carthago Dalenda Est", or, "Carthage must be destroyed".

Carthage, of course, was Rome's great rival, and Carthage and Rome initially got along about as well as did the USA and Mexico, which is to say, not infrequently the robust trade and diplomatic niceties broke down when one side or the other launched either a trade war or outright military hostilities.

Eventually, Rome took Cato seriously on at least a few occasions, going so far at one time as to sow tons of salt into the fields of Carthage to destroy agriculture. Considering that the soldiers of the immense Roman legions were paid in salt, this was one of the most expensive military actions in recorded history, in terms of currency expended irrecoverably.

Eventually, a bit after the Goths sacked the city of Rome and brought the Roman Empire of the West down into the Dark Ages, the Vandals had their kingdom's capital at Carthage.

The Vandals, it might be noted, stood in the same relationship to Rome (or Carthage for that matter) as the Mexican Drug Cartels of the lawless northern regions of Mexico stand to the central government of the City of Mexico, DF.

And through the Romans never did quite get over the sack of Rome, now and then they used to send out punitive raids against the Vandals, who mostly didn't care all that much. Sure, the Romans might wipe out an entire regiment. That did nothing about the whole nation of Vandals, who almost all raised all of their children to be warriors, or the mothers of many warriors.

And in recent days, not unlike in the Roman days, US forces went after the Vandals moving huge amounts of sincerely destructive methamphetamine from "superlabs" in Mexico to hopeless losers in the various major cities of the US. It's a start, but just a drop in the bucket, and there's more where they came from. Yet for now there are 303 less narcotraficantes of "La Familia" running around loose in the USA holding together the vast and far-reaching tentacles of the real government of Mexico, the transnational crime cartels.

Carthago Dalenda Est.


Moving right along, in terms of other things that need to be destroyed, let me write briefly about the current building of the Aspen Hill Library.

I must reiterate that I was living here when it was built, and in fact watched it being built.

My dad once told me about how his folks in Kansas dealt with a highly variable water supply from the "crick" that ran by the farm. A "crick" is a river in rainy weather, a ditch in droughts, and in between those extremes it runs a small and fairly steady -- though usually muddy -- stream of water.

The Kansas farmers could have drilled wells, but in that part of Kansas, the first thing a drill would hit would be the so-called "Hardman Seep", a shallow but very broad layer of oil. Then you could drill through about 500 feet of limestone and hit the Ogallala Aquifer and access an underground lake spanning half of the continent, but that was expensive and a lot of work.

So, the Kansas farmers would go down into the flood plain of the creek, and dig a fairly large and shallow pit, and in some places they'd dig it about as deep as they could go without striking oil. Then they'd line the bottom with clay, and fill it the rest of the way with sand and chunk gravel, and cover it over. While the stream itself wasn't allowed to feed it, the stream fed the water table, which generally remained even in the dry seasons. The water table would permeate into these covered pits, cleaned by the earth around the pits, and clear cool fresh water would fill these "accumulator wells", and be stored below the frost line and be covered against dry-season evaporation. Year round, there would be a lot of water in very predictable quantities.

Back when they were building the Aspen Hill Library, Dad said something like "Hmmph, back in Kansas we would have called that basement an accumulator well". I asked him what he meant, and he pointed out the lay of the land, and told me that little story about how the Kansas farmers made sure they always had plenty of clean water.

Dad used to get on the nerves of some folks, because he'd walk right over to folks and start talking to them, ask them what they were doing, and he'd tell them something about him being just a simple Kansas farmboy, and of course most of these "damn fool Easterners" didn't have the slightest idea of what that meant to almost anyone who served in WWII.

And then the old man would tell them some long drawn-out story, such as the one about how the Kansas farmers assured themselves of an uninterruptable water supply.

That was his non-confrontational way of telling the guys building the Library that they were building a guaranteed wet basement of epic proportions and that it would plague them for as long as rain fell on the earth in these parts.

They didn't listed to him then, and they're not about to listen to me now. But even if you can lead a horse to water but cannot make him drink, it's inhumane in a desert to not lead that horse to water, even if he's a mean horse that likes to bite and kick.

Attempting to make any improvements whatsoever to the Aspen Hill Library at the present site will only be throwing bad money after good, for a building that is over 40 years old and was designed with a half-life of 40 years, and with perfectly good architecture for a well-drained location having been built smack in the middle of a "crick".

Regardless of the weather, and regardless of the time of year, they have to pump about 60 gallons of water out of the basement of the Aspen Hill Library.

They're throwing bad money after good.

And coming soon, I will tell all about where to build the new Aspen Hill Library, in such a way and in such a place and for such reasons as should remove all debate about the Wheaton Library and the plans to move and rebuild it as the cornerstone of the Wheaton Central Business District.

I'll also tell you, soon, about where to put a huge new Police Substation for the Fourth District, as well as other public-sector facilities, and it will all fit right in with one of the really few actually grand and actually visionary Grand Visions of the Planning Board.


Moving right along to the Planning Board, there is significant resistance mounting -- in a year with elections coming that will place at risk the position of every elected County official and all of the jobs that they control -- to what many see as a policy of robbing the extant County residents to pay to attract new residents.

Washington Post reporter Miranda Spivack -- who by writing this article proves that it's actually possible that the Post may have hired a sane journalist at long last -- covers the issues fairly deeply in her article Hurdles to Montgomery 'smart growth' option: Some say proposal fails to go far enough, and others consider it unrealistic, Spivack, Miranda S, Washington Post, October 22, 2009.

For example,
[Montgomery Planning Board Chairman Royce Hanson] proposes changing the county's Annual Growth Policy, which is updated every two years, to make development easier in areas where growth policy now discourages it because of congestion. His plan, under debate by the County Council, would reward developers who build near transit and create walkable, bikeable communities by giving them discounts and allowing them to avoid the usual requirements to fix congested roads nearby or make improvements so their developments don't add to traffic.

Simply being willing to point out this glaring insanity -- I suspect Alzheimers -- would tend to indicate something like the presence of journalistic integrity not overpowered by either blatant Union shilling and partisan propaganda or an incipient career in Architecture and Urban Planning.

Hanson says:
"Knowing that the population and tastes are changing in terms of what people want in living style, we think it makes a lot of sense to move from a system that has been historically based on what you can't do, based on capacity of mainly roads, to a system that focuses on what you ought to do and where you ought to do it," Hanson said one recent day as he prepared for another marathon session with the County Council committee reviewing the Annual Growth Policy.


Ah, we appear to be talking about one side of one issue, and another side of another generally-unrelated issue, don't we, Mr Hanson?

It's difficult at the best of times to sort out from the double-talk of a politician the word-salad of encroaching senility, but this is one of the best demonstrations I've seen of why you have to keep a close eye on the mental processes of "grey eminences" such as Mr Hanson. Otherwise, you wind up with excesses such as the conferral of "visiting professor Emeritus" titles on Kurt Vonnegut Jr, who in later years tended to be sheparded into classrooms and not allowed to speak to his students and fans, because if he opened his mouth everyone would know that however strangely sane his mad works of literature had been in the crazy times in which he was a cutting-edge young writer, in his dotage he was in fact just batshit crazy.

As to Mr Hanson's statement, there is no question that the County ought to address the issue of what ought to be built where, and for what reasons one ought to build a certain way in certain types of places.

Yet there absolutely has to be a limit on when something can be built, and there absolutely have to be prerequisites to any building.

Or, to deconstruct the impermissible conflations of the evidently demented (or perhaps just very tricksy), "just because high-density transit-centric mixed-use walkable development is good, doesn't mean you can build it without pre-existing transit, adequate roads, sufficient water and sanitary sewer, and plenty of schools, libraries, medical facilities, and buses".

The only excuse for building a "science city" and claiming that it's "transit centric" when there can't possibly be sufficient transit actually operating there for at least 15 years, is to admit that you're lying by omision or are simply failing to think it through (or are batshit crazy or senile). The only excuse for building massive work-residence hubs with no public schools is immensely elitist and insulting to the public school, because that excuse is "oh, we don't need to build public schools there because all of the rich-intelligentsia scientific professionals will be sending their kids to Private Schools elsewhere".

See? There are a lot of implications -- dirty implications -- that are covered over by Mr Hanson's thoughtless and flippant remark, in the same way that a house-cat buries a stinky lump of excreted former tuna guts under sand in a litter-box.

As far as the cat is concerned, "out of sight, out of mind", but the owner knows better. They're the one that is going to have to clean up the litter-box, once it's so full of crap that there isn't any room for any more.


Moving right along once again, we have to note that it's not all about Mr Hanson or how he seems to think that most voters are too stupid to recognize a conflation of unrelated concepts.

County Council President Phil Andrews (of Gaithersburg, already congested and doomed to impassibility if the present proposals for the Gaithersburg West Master Plan are passed) says:
For the foreseeable future, most people in Montgomery County will continue to drive [...] I believe it is a critical measure of the quality of life, and it is a crucial one for many of our residents.

Of course, that doesn't begin to cover the simmering outrage beginning to percolate upwards from those of us who already live here -- an outrage which I assure everyone I intend to stoke until it boils over and burns anyone trying to keep a lid on it -- that the County seems to want to "earmark" all kinds of money towards one end, the end of throwing as much money as possible at Future Development in the model most profitable to Big Developers, at the expense of throwing any money at all in upgrading or mantaining infrastructure on the parts of the County that are already built out and long-settled.

In the words of the County Council rep for Potomac and Bethesda, Roger Berliner:
[Constituents ...] feel threatened by this county's embrace of smart growth and new urbanism [...] fed by a belief that a lifestyle of a suburban community is not respected and should not be respected."

In case the Astute Reader (as if there were one) doesn't know it, I am all over all of the "New Urbanism" blogs covering the region, and I see this myself, time and time again: the people flogging the blogosphere for "urban development" outright hate cars and people who drive them.

There's this sort of pathology working there, as best I can tell.

Look, I have lived in various cities and in all of those cities I have driven as necessary and have taken mass-transit as possible.

In Houston, when I was first there, they had loads of parking all over the place, and almost no buses, and none that ran on a real and predictable schedule. Later, that changed... but the city is still so large that for probably the majority of people, it's just not possible to get to anyplace other than work, maybe, without a car.

In Denver, in the mid-1990s, they had a really pretty good bus system, not that they actually needed it in most places. Still, for those making the long trek from Aurora to downtown Denver, the bus made sense and the bus was there. Yet if you wanted to go almost anywhere off of Colfax Avenue, a car was more than useful, and during the frequent blizzards, you had to be actually crazy to walk anywhere when the situation called for 4-wheel drive.

Here in the Greater Washington Metropolitan Area were are very well served by almost as much mass-transit as is possible. And there are limits to how much mass-transit you can have.

Two years ago, speaking with the Bethesda Chevy-Chase Chamber of Commerce, evidently I convinced someone I was an idiot when they were talking up the White Flint expansion plan and wanted comparable overdevelopment along the Red Line metrorail line in their area of operations.

I asked them, "so, are there adequate mass-transit facilities?"

And they responded through their teeth, "we have five Metro Stations!"

I was taken aback by the anger. But it didn't answer the totality of the question I asked.

Those five stations are all on one line that was completed in the 1980s with an actual half-life of about 30 years and with a predicted half-life of 45 years based on far more aggressive maintenance and renovation than has actually occurred. The Red Line is running at or beyond capacity and far in excess of planned ridership, especially at those five stations.

Without really significant improvements in line capacity, adding more stations to that line does nothing to improve line capacity. If anything, it assures more beyond-expected ridership, and excess ridership invariably assures less opportunity, and higher costs, for maintenance and upgrades of the line.

And the Planning Board and their barking-dog New Urbanist pups want to quadruple the traffic, with no expansion of line capacity, and have all of that line traffic come online exactly at the half-life point where there's a 75 percent chance of cascade failure? The timing is about as silly as possible. Put a half million people on the train, and then put the train out of service -- in whole or in part -- for the next decade. I submit that this can't make sense to anyone who is not on drugs (legal or otherwise).

Reporter Miranda Spivak shows excellent aim when she hits the nail on the head:
The Planning Board has tried to make improving transit an ironclad guarantee for much new development. In July, when the board approved a proposed science city spearheaded by Johns Hopkins University, members were adamant that the development could not be built unless the proposed Corridor Cities Transitway bus or rail system is funded and built. Funding transit, however, is up to federal, state and local lawmakers who are struggling with large budget shortfalls, so the Planning Board can advocate it but can't create it.

Thus, the Planning Board is attempting to move forward in creating a potential clusterfuck of epic proportion potentially ruining the lives of tens of thousands of people, by promoting development utterly dependent and predicated upon a service over which they have absolutely no provenance nor control.

According to County Executive Isiah "Ike" Leggett, "The proposed 2009 Growth Policy includes assumptions and directions that I believe could significantly impair the quality of life in Montgomery County [...]"

I couldn't agree more.

And one of these fine days, when I'm feeling a bit more like sharing -- with Dear Diary, the Astute Reader, and anyone who happens to stumble onto this blog -- just how "mental" I am, I may have to write a little scenario in which these proposed Giant Beehives of Humanity become Vast Cemeteries of the Doomed.

I'll preview that with some remarks from the UN World Water Assessment Programme (2003) report Water for people, water for life: Executive summary:
The logic of urbanization is clear--those countries that urbanized most in the past forty years are generally those with the largest economic growth. Urban areas, generally, provide the economic resources to install water supply and sanitation, but they also concentrate wastes. Where good waste management is lacking, urban areas are among the world's most life-threatening environments (UNWWAP, 2003, p. 15).



More to come?

About the Library? About the Beehiving of Montgomery?

Could be...

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

"Aspen Hill Rapist" Charged Again With More Crimes

Timothy Joseph Buzbee is name that struck terror into the hearts of Aspen Hill residents some 30 years ago.

A convicted serial rapist, Buzbee was finally arrested in November 1982 and was eventually convicted of three felonies. The first conviction was for a the kidnapping and rape of 15-year-old girl who he kidnapped on July 30, 1981. He attacked her from behind, within her own home, and overpowered her. He blindfolded, gagged, and transported her, to his parents' Aspen Hill home, and raped her there.

A string of at least 16 rapes was attributed to him in the time frame of the 1981-1982. He was convicted of only three, the 15-year-old, a 39-year-old District woman abducted and raped on an Aspen Hill street March 9 1982, and an 18-year-old community college student raped in the dining room of her own home on September 18, 1982. To this last act, Buzbee plead guilty in a plea-bargain deal ("Aspen Hill rapist’ Buzbee postpones parole hearing", Parish, Warren, Montgomery Gazette, November 9 2005, downloaded 2009 October 21).

Buzbee's reign of terror has widely been believed to have covered only the time-frame from roughly the beginning of 1981 until November of 1982 when he was arrested and charged.

This would be consistent with the so-called "organized type" of serial rapist, and Buzbee was nothing if not "organized". A surveyor by trade, and raised in Aspen Hill, this Frederick County resident allegedly studied his victims and circumstances for weeks in advance of each attack, and was consistently cautious about concealing his identity.

The organized-type serial rapist shares a pattern with the organized-type of serial killer, and in fact many serial killers started out as serial rapists, and some suggest that serial killing is a nearly inevitable status resulting from escalation from the violence and degradation of mere rape into something even more degrading and violent. In Buzbee's case, the elements of planning and control were prominent.

Every journey, however long or short, has a beginning, and it was widely believed that Buzbee's crimes were all known and already associated to him. Apparently, even two decades out from the time of his first conviction and incarceration, nobody had ever thought to compare the DNA of a convicted serial rapist to cold-case files in and around central Montgomery County.

It had widely been presumed that Buzbee's string of serial-rapist violations had begun in early 1981, and apparently nobody had ever tried to associate hiom with any crimes prior to his "known" crimes.

Cold case detectives in Montgomery have been engaged, in recent years, in a process of checking all DNA traces against all available samples. In practice, this means checking against all persons entered in a variety of databases.

Crimes dating back to 1977 -- far earlier than Buzbee was believed to have operated -- have turned up as a positive DNA match. On October 15, 2009, a grand jury returned 10 counts relating to 4 rapes taking place between 1977 and 1980 ("New charges against rapist remind Aspen Hill residents of intense fear", Brachfeld, Melissa and Carrick, Nathan, Montgomery Gazette, October 21, 2009, downloaded 2009, October 21).

Buzbee, 52, would have been 19 or 20 years old at the time of the 1977 alleged rape, and likely would have graduated high school in the class of 1975. It is unknown to this writer from which highschool he graduated, although references from 1982 indicate that his parents lived in Aspen Hill, and one may reasonably presume that if he was educated in the Montgomery County public schools, he would have graduated from Robert E Peary HS, or possibly from Kennedy HS or even Wheaton HS.

Inquiring minds want to know from which highschool he graduated, or which he attended, if he didn't graduate.

Previously, the idea had been that Buzbee started his career of serial rape in 1981, but now it appears that the start of his career was at least as early as 1977 and could possibly have been earlier.

Considering that Buzbee was from Aspen Hill, and is now suspected of rapes in and around Aspen Hill much earlier than previously thought possible or likely, we suggest that Cold Case officers should immediately do DNA comparisons of Buzbee and other convicted sex offenders in the DNA database who could have been in Maryland at the time, in an effort to resolve the July 1975 case of Kathy Lynn Beatty, who was sexually assaulted, brutally beaten, and left to die behind the K-Mart on Connecticut Avenue in Aspen Hill. At that time, the area was relatively undeveloped and covered with second-growth forest in parts, and lots of local teens and some young adults used to party in the woods with drugs and beer. Whether or not Tim Buzbee did in fact know of the "party place" is unknown to this writer, however "the Rocks" as a party place was very widely known. The case remains open, of course, and recently efforts have been escalated towards final solution of this Cold Case.

There is already a very old and well-developed "suspects list" in that case, but it seems reasonable to believe that through oversight -- probably based on a mistaken belief that Tim Buzbee wasn't raping anytime before 1981 -- Buzbee was never on the suspects-list for the Beatty case. If he was not, it's time to add him, due to the new information of a DNA match to rapes in the area just 2 years after the Beatty case struck fear into the neighborhood.

Montgomery's Cold Case Squad has been hard at work in recent years, even solving a murder from 1982, linking the Wendy Stark cold case to deceased kidnapper and murdering "lifer" Gerald A. Abernathy, a North Carolina prison inmate.

This is how a lot of DNA comparison cases are starting to work: people already caught for other crimes are being caught for additional ones, while already behind bars.

The best thing about this, since they can't generally be given additional punishments above and beyond either life in prison or a place on Death Row, is that closure comes, and people know that a crime has been solved. Otherwise you have to wonder: are they still out there, the people who did that? And with knowledge of the perpetrator and of justice being served, comes a freedom from apprehension of an known quality of evil attached to an unknown character who is perhaps still at-large.

Let's run those tests, folks. For the Kathy Beatty case, Tim Buzbee won't just be in jail and eligible for parole for previous convictions as at present (though held for trial, of course), he'd be locked up forever or until he dies, or waiting on Death Row.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Meeting Places in Aspen Hill, or,

Who Controls Meeting Places Controls Public Opinion



I've got something of a love/hate relationship with the Aspen Hill Library, and the people in it.

Look, I was living here when the Library was built, and I've been here through expansions and renovations.

As regards the functions of the library itself, as a library, I cannot fault it at all. It's an immensely popular place, and never moreso than when the economy is in a downturn and people cannot afford to go to as many movies or buy as much recorded music. People rediscover the book as entertainment, and some go further to discover the book as enjoyable education.

Yet circulation of media, print or otherwise, isn't all that goes on at the Aspen Hill Library.

There is the Dungeon of Horrors, ahem, the "meeting room" downstairs.


This being Hallowe'en, or awfully close to it, I like to try to make people look around them as the warm and pleasant harvest season draws to a close.

Remember, folks, this is the time of year when everyone knows that it's good to be looking over your shoulder to see who is following you.

This is the time of year when the dry autumn leaves start to skitter through the streets with a scuffing sound like the footfall of stalking Elves.

This is the time of year when the farmers start selecting the fattest calf or lamb, and start feeding it more. This is definitely an old European tradition: pile the food into the trough and wrap a harvest garland about the neck of the thanks-offering.

This is the time of year when the Old Religion pagans give thanks for what they were given by returning to the Maker something that should bring again the good times and good harvests.

And this is the time of year when those who twist the Old Ways insist that no sacrifice will better improve the affairs of their kind in the coming year, than the sacrifice of Man.

And how do you get a man to lay his neck down on the table for the knife that slices from behind? The knife in the hand of the one who crept in through the door behind the seat of the visitor, "the seat of honor"?

Invite him to a meeting where he will be the guest-of-honor. But what a guest! -and to whose honor?


Upstairs in the library the casual visitor selects a book or two or three to check out for a while, to return when they are done reading, or perhaps after an extended checkout period.

Downstairs, in a quiet room that's mostly located below ground, with very well sealed blinds, meetings happen.

The meetings have to be scheduled in advance, but there's no general list published and so who might be meeting there is unknown except to the reservation staff member and whoever is invited and whomever sends the invitations. So, anyone could be down there in that room: the Pope could be there, and if he didn't tell you, you'd never know. The President could be there, and you'd never know. The Devil Himself could be there presiding over the sacrifice of innocents, or at least of those who are not in the favor of the Devil Himself.

And if you were a cult of suburban... brujas, y su culto de sacrificio de sangre y la muerte por las bendiciones del diablo... that meeting room would be the perfect place.

The meeting begins. The library closes.

After a while, the body emerges from a back door and is carried up the hill to Landgreen Street.

And all of those "citizen associations" continue to complain about how they get people to come in to a meeting exactly one time and then nobody ever hears from them again.

Las Brujas, y su culto de sacrificio de sangre y la muerte por las bendiciones del diablo...

Citizens would never believe that such a thing could happen, but the poor people from the poor countries all know that there are such cults, and that they always operate with the blessings of corrupt minor officials who blackmail their superiors. And so to these meetings they don't come, the simple people from simple places, who remember that evil itself can be very simple as well. And they know the corruption, and know how it works; that's why they call it "mordida", "the bite".

The citizens don't understand, but the newcomers all know: in hidden rooms in hidden places are hidden acts. And if above it all is the bustle of the marketplace, who will notice if a stranger wanders into places they should not go, and are bitten by secret snakes?

But in the Old Country, there was no person more murderous than the policeman, no person with greater guilt than the politician, none better at scheming to crimes than the lawyer, no better poisoner than the nurse, no molester of children greater than the trusted teacher, no corrupter more dreaded than the perverted priest, and no monster who was dressed in rags when they could take any suit they wanted from their victims.

Back in the Old Country, you could trust the little people, the poor people, the people who would never rise to high position because they would not sell their soul. And hence the distrust, even when they have come to America, of people who were not elected at the ballot box, but who claim to have authority "because we know powerful people".

And those who were not elected at public ballot yet who claim to be officials, they are the ones that invite people to meetings, people who are never seen again, or who are - -worse yet! -- returned from those meetings, never to be the same again.


Scared yet? aw, c'mon. Get with the spirit of the season, folks!

I'm not actually suggesting that people get invited to a "Book of the Month Club" meeting to discuss the classic horror/satire novel the Stepford Wives and then replace the guests with automaton androids that give great mechanical sex and can't stop obsessing about Waxy Yellow Buildup.

But I will tell you that outside of publicity, outside of any real public knowledge of what's going on, Shit Happens.

Some of it is probably Bad Shit.

Some might be Really Bad Shit.

And because the meeting room is mostly underground, and with all of the shades drawn, nobody could ever know.


I will shortly be releasing some proposals, both by snail mail and on this blog, for a variety of improvements to the Aspen Hill area services from the County Libraries.

Among other things, that one Scary Meeting Room of the Damned -- affectionately known as "the Dungeon" -- would become a thing of the past.

At present, it's the only publicly-reservable meeting room in the Aspen Hill area which is not controlled by a religious organization nor dedicated to a branch of government that excludes most other uses, such as school gymnasiums, etc.

My proposal will include a variety of meeting rooms, all available by short-term advance reservation, for nominal fees...

And ever last one of those meeting rooms will have windows of such thick glass that nobody inside will feel like they could possibly be a target, and those thick glass windows will never have the blinds closed during meetings, and all meetings taking place there will do so under the Maryland Open Meetings Act laws.

No more Scary Aspen Hill Library Dungeon!

And no more Who Knows What going on down there.

Monday, October 19, 2009

Aspen Hill Library Advisory Committee, or,

Why I Don't Get Out Much



Dear Diary: Today I had yet-another experience of why I don't get out much... because usually when I go someplace, I seem to manage to convince people that autistics should be seen and not heard, and ideally not much seen, either.
'
I have never been formally diagnosed as autistic, but I think it's the only thing that really explains me. I'm far from stupid, I have read piles and piles of books and remember the important facts and points of what the author intended to convey, whether or not I agree with all or part of their thesis and conclusions. Yet the fact is, there are parts of me that are, well, defective.

A lot of folks seem to read it as me not connecting with them, not observing the social norms, and many of these social norms have nothing to do with being law-abiding, with being courteous, with being considerate of other drivers or holding the door open for people carrying infants. It's more a case, at times, like I'm the proverbial talking dog. People are just so amazed that a dog is talking to them, or so the joke goes, that they don't listen to anything the dog says. The people go away marveling that they just heard a dog talking, and the dog goes away wondering why people can't seem to carry on a coherent conversation at a reasonable intellectual level.

When I was a little kid, I was often referred to by people as "little professor" and that sure fits in with a high-functioning case of Asperger Syndrome. To this day I have what I call "bibliographical memory", which is like "photographic memory", but rather than remembering images, I remember almost everything I read. And I don't remember it as I read it, by rote, I remember it as the summaries of what I understood. In recent years I have worked very hard to be able to summarize people's arguments and to remember those. And in the same way that when I do computer system administration and development, I parse the logic and data of these summaries and their facts one against the other, in part and in parcel. From the thesis and antithesis, may come synthesis, a change in kind more than in quantity, or perhaps I may be lucky enough to devise alternative approaches. And these too get thrown into the mixer, and become facts moving through logic.

I love the InterNet, both for the wealth of raw data and peer-reviewed interpretations of the data, but more than anything else, I love the fact that the interaction between me and other people on the internet is all words on a screen, pretty much. And all the better for me: on the internet, nobody knows that you're a talking dog. And hell, with my interests being what they are, the people I frequently find who have comparable interests on the same level of fascination and depth of study, well, they're talking dogs, too.

Talking dogs, so to speak, are just not very common and the chance that they'd run into each other, and have the opportunity to (so to speak) do the talking-dog equivalent of sniffing each other's butts and playing talking-dog tag, well, such opportunities are vanishingly rare.

In Real Life, having become accustomed to corresponding with all of the other (so to speak) talking dogs, I find myself trying to talk to Normal People as if they were my own kind.

And as in the old joke, the people walk away marveling -- frequently not in a very pleasant and often an evidently worried way -- that they just had a dog talk to them, and the dog walks away wondering why it is that people can't seem to have a coherent conversation.

A friend of mine once told me, waaaay back when I was young and cute and in really good shape, "you know, you are your own worst enemy", in the context of picking up ladies at bars. "What you really need to do, my friend," he told me, "is to just sit there and occasionally grunt non-commitally, and say things like 'yes,' 'no,' 'I dunno,' 'maybe,' and perhaps 'let us find out'."

I tried it. It worked like a charm:
Then I started running into gals who chided me for my lack of intellectual complexity and emotional sensitivity.

Well, the emotional sensitivity isn't something I can do much about. But I could start talking about what interested me: everything. And how it all relates.

And it turns out that that once having developed the habit of speaking my mind as if I had one, I couldn't shake that habit.

Well, Jesus the Nazirene said something to the effect of "what purpose can it serve, to hide a lamp under a bushel-basket?"

Well, for one thing, Jesus, it doesn't leave people marveling at you as if you were a talking dog.

But we are what we are:

And I digress.


Librarians and their advocates, one might think, would understand that you cannot judge a book by its cover. Nor may one rely on reviews; the reviewer may very well have an axe to grind.

Then again, sometimes you have to wonder who exactly thought it might be a good idea to publish some titles... and once again, some books are interesting only to talking dogs.

Perhaps you'd like to play a nice game of "fetch"? I can do that, too.


It seems that due to budget constraints imposed by the economic crisis and the budget woes of the County, funding for the libraries will overall be reduced by about $3-millions in the budget which must be proposed to the County Executive by December 1 2009. This comes on top of approximately $800K in cuts already slapped into place.

Program expenses for the libraries have been slashed by approximately one-third. A good point is raised that "smaller" libraries may tend to get short-sheeted (so to speak), and another point is raised: this year, the Aspen Hill Library has a circulation increase in aggregate of approximately 13 percent.

Retired State Senator Len Teitelbaum asks three questions. Why the rise in checkouts from the library, and what purpose does the library serve in the community... and what does the library need to be to better serve the community? (I humbly beg pardon if I have misrecorded this, I am working entirely from memory.)

Montgomery County Executive Isiah "Ike" Leggett has proposed that there will be a "Library Summit" not unlike his putatively successful Senior Summit. Part of this will be the usual top-down MoCo approach of inviting "stakeholders" to a meeting at which they will be subjected to assorted speeches from keynote authorities selected primarily for their adherence to a previously articulated vision, and then the stakeholders will be split up into focus groups who will all brainstorm on how to make this happen; all dissent will be ignored unless and until they make an exceptionally solid point about why this intended approach is doomed to failure. Anyone capable of making such a point is highly unlikely to be invited.

(I speak from experience. In the "Creating Opportunities for Youth" summit in the Aspen Hill area, things came somewhat crashing to a halt when I summarized a lot of other people's observations that "we dare not move forward on these issues until we have done a lot of study on what programs will address the needs and problems of young-adult women". It turns out that in proposing proactive anti-crime and pro-success programs, the role of young women at risk of crime and of falling into criminal lifestyles had been left totally unaddressed. The decision was made that nobody knew how to proceed, and the best thing anyone could do for anyone at that time was to make sure kids -- especially crime-prone teens -- had enough to eat.)

Assuming for now -- despite SiteMeter's evidence to the contrary -- that anyone actually reads this, I propose to the local blogosphere that everyone who is anyone should start chiming in now, well in advance, about what is their vision of what the Library should be, what will be the meaning and function of the Libraries in particular and in general, and I will try to articulate some of that myself.

Look, as a talking dog -- so to speak -- there isn't any point in me going to meetings; I'll just walk away with hurt feelings and people who almost get what I'm trying to say will be wondering "now WTF was he going on about" and it'll be a rhetorical question, not anything to which they could reasonably expect an answer comprehensible to them. So I'll just try to put in some Quality Blogging on the subject, which as unread as this blog unquestionably is, will pretty much amount to a talking dog barking up the wrong tree in the wrong neck of the woods. This dog will hunt, what exactly nobody's sure, but they're mostly convinced that they'll understand it even less if I actually do catch it, again, so to speak.

I'll just try to make nice lists of links to writings by folks that regular people can understand.

Like I said, how about a nice game of fetch.


More to come? At least this is more interesting than speculating about "Commoditized Death Obligations".

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Barney Frank Writes Great Horror Stories, or

How Wall Street Got an Air Bubble In Its Carotids



Dear Diary: Due too reasons to personal to explain -- you don't really want to know about bad burger and sleepless nights, do you? -- I was up early this morning, rather a bit earlier than bright-and-early, as it was darkest before dawn.

Note to self and to whoever on the County Council staff is reading this: the streetlight on the corner at 14001 Parkland Drive is doing the on-again-off-again thing, where it gets up to full illumination levels and then promptly turns off for the next 3 minutes.

Well, on and off for some years of occasional early-morning rising, I've seen people coming to the bus-stops at the intersection. Sometimes this has been cause for some concern on my part.

Some years ago, I got up in the morning before sunrise and got the paper and was smoking a cigarette before going back inside to read, and across the street some guy staggers out of the neighbor's bushes to the bus-stop. Ordinarily this would just disgust me -- I say ordinarily because it is appallingly commonplace nowadays -- but on this particular pre-dawn morning I noticed something I had not seen before.

She had a trim figure, and was walking fast, as best I could tell in the dark. And she walked briskly past the drunk, who almost staggered into her, and crossed the street, and kept heading east on Heathfield... right on down to the school bus stop. Egads. They're starting school so early that they're sending students walking right past bus-stops frequently full of drunks, in the dark? Worse yet, it being dark and all of that and not being able to see all that well, I was just checking out a minor. I won't be doing that again... but what about the drunk at the bus-stop?

This was something I had to keep an eye on. So, I started doing my best to be up a bit before that time of dark morning, and as I got the paper, I checked to be sure that it wasn't my bushes that might have drunks sleeping in them, and that schoolgirls could walk without fear to their bus-stop, no matter how dark it was when the schools ordered them to follow predictable paths to predictable places.

Of course, schoolgirls being schoolgirls, probably they fear me, but year after year the kids walk past and nothing has ever happened to any of them while I've been out there watching. If anything did, I'd be dialing 911 and getting as many cops there as possible, as fast as I could.


Cops, of course, are generally the solution, rather than the problem, but sometimes a speeding police car seems too intent on the destination and not observant enough of obstacles. Police Cruiser Kills Pedestrian is an unfortunately commonplace story on the local news.

My September 23, 2009 blog entry gives some detail about a hot-pursuit police chase on my block and hereabouts, with a suspect on foot running through yards and with about 20 cruisers orbiting the area with a lot of them zipping around like bats out of hell -- an apt simile given the black "ninja suits" the officers wear on patrol -- and generally trying to move as fast as possible without making a lot of noise.

Running hot with sirens blaring -- or merely with the throttle opened wide -- gives clear auditory signals to the quarry, and the officers would generally rather sneak up on suspects and nab them, rather than provide clues about which way the suspect ought not to run if (s)he wishes to continue to evade and elude. This all meant that the cops were not just speeding around, but speeding quietly.

This Year's Schoolgirl happened to be coming home late at the exact instant that a couple of cruisers decided that they didn't care who knew they were coming and burned around the corner without even a passing genuflection to the four-way stop. When TYS got across the street, I waved at her and mentioned that she might want to be extra careful the rest of the way home; "the cops are chasing someone around in the yards down the block by your house, no need to get caught in the middle of it".

She affirmed and then started to cross the street, and I said "watch it" and she stopped at the corner and another cruiser whipped around the corner, not missing her by much. She turned back and said "there's something not right, when you have to watch out for the people who are supposed to protect you". Now that's Heavy Irony for a teenager, I guess.

"There's a lot of that going around," I said. Couldn't think of anything else to say.


Sometimes I feel sort of sorry for cops, then I come to my senses.

But before I come to my senses, the truth of the matter I see thus: most of the ones who make it through the academy really are mostly motivated by wanting to do some good, to make a difference, to bring criminals to justice, to keep people safe.

And probably 99 percent of the non-criminals who interact with them do so as they are issued a traffic citation, and even people who aren't good at reading faces can read the face of the civilians, who are generally thinking something like "costing me money and making me late", and that's the ones who are being polite.


And in the early morning I know how they feel, who see that in the faces of the majority of their contacts with civilians.

Sometimes in the morning, there aren't any more schoolgirls walking past through the darkness to a bus-stop. Either they've graduated or moved and the schoolbus-stop is in a different place, anyway. Yet other females sometimes are waiting in the darkness, under the broken streetlight, and who knows what sort of person might be stirring from their drunken stupor, perhaps to see the streetlight flicker on, spotlighting someone they may see as prey.

A few months ago, we had some guy get robbed getting off of the bus at the stop in my front yard, an "amigo shopping" robbery as best I can tell. But if people can get robbed getting off of the bus in the broad-daylight hours of the afternoon, what could happen to a female standing in the pre-dawn darkness under the broken streetlight at the same bus-stop?

So I know how the cops feel: I'm standing out there because someone's got to keep an eye out against crime.

And to judge from the body-language of any of the females who might happen to be getting on the bus, the cops making traffic stops may be getting the look that says "you're costing me money and making me late", but I am getting the look that says "just try something, you creepy freak bastard".

As the schoolgirl said, "there's something really wrong when you have to watch out for the people who are supposed to protect you".

But I'm not running 40 MPH down a residential street in afterschool hours, doing the four-wheel drift through a four-way stop. I'm just standing on the back porch smoking a cigarette in the morning darkness after getting up early to get the morning paper, and now and then I wave my hand to re-activate the motion-sensor porchlight that will just have to do to put some light on the scene, until whoever at County Council reads this and gets the goddamn streetlight fixed.

Then I can go back to sleeping late and be one less thing for the reasonably paranoid to worry about.


Well, at least if I go back to sleeping in in the morning, I won't be worrying reasonably paranoid adult female citizens standing around at a dark and sketchy bus-stop in an increasingly ghetto neighborhood waiting for a bus full of riders that might as well be called the "immigrant express".

I have to admit that I must be pretty scary if someone feels it a relief -- and preferable -- to hop on a bus where nobody's speaking English, rather than wonder WTF I am doing standing around suspiciously smoking a cigarette on a well-illuminated back porch. Or maybe I'm reading the body-language wrong.

I might as well be scary someplace else, if I'm going to be up this early, so why not take the camera down to Home Depot and put a little fear into people who are not, in my humble opinion, sufficiently paranoid?

Here's a picture -- an extremely large one, so don't download it if you don't have enough bandwidth -- of Xtra Care Stone Work Division picking up day-laborers at Aspen Hill Home Depot.

Home Depot, of course, has an agreement with the police that anyone loitering on their lot may be questioned and advised to leave the property, and that the next time that they're seen on the property, they'll be arrested for trespassing. And also of course, when they're at the jail, wants-and-warrants will be checked, and like as not, warrants will exist and will be served and the day-laborers -- most likely not legally present in the USA and not legally allowed to work in the USA -- will be siting in jail until they've served their time, and then they'll probably be deported.


Moving right along, let's get to the issued of Barney Frank, chairman of the House Finance Committee (if memory serves), who was on MSNBC this morning, on their "Frank Talk" segment.

While on the subject of Finance Reform and in the context of Wall Street, the Right Honorable Mr Frank was discussing the fact that AIG -- the insurance giant -- nearly sucked Wall Street into the next dimension via a nearly incalculably-deriviative fiscal black hole, because it had made massive committments of insurance coverage, without the capital resources to back it up.

They were playing the odds, mentioned Mr Frank, and as long as the housing market prices continued to rise -- and thus also rose the deriviatives that AIG insured against loss -- AIG couldn't lose. However, when the housing bubble started to collapse, AIG did not have the capital collateral on hand in order to pay out for the losses they had insured, and since the rest of the world's capital markets tended to borrow against their own holdings and investments in AIG, this dragged the markets to the point of collapsing credit markets and leaving everything and everyone else swirling around the drain, so to speak.

Then -- perhaps because it's October and it's thought to be fun to talk about things that are scary or macabre -- he explained it with a fine analogy straight out of the studios of Hammer Films. And I quote as best I can:

"It's like, for example, let's say that you were selling life insurance to vampires, payable when they died. That's a sure bet, you're never going to have to pay out because they live forever, so go ahead and reinvest with the capital collateral you had, you're never going to need it, or so you think. Then all of a sudden, vampires start dying and you have to pay out, and you don't have the money. You are in a fix."

Holy instant horror story, Batman!

This requires expansion, Mr Frank, and thus I feel compelled to expand on the theme, and try to allay the fears of the Hallowe'en-o-phobic and scare Wall Street into apoplexy.






The following is a work of fiction and copyrighted as of this instant. No vampire were harmed in the making of this story, as if most people would give a shit.



Most people would never for a moment think that vampires would have life insurance. Other kinds of "insurance", maybe, such as vengeful friends and family who wouldn't much be pleased with having to vacuum up the ashes after someone caused one of their kin to get left out in the sunlight to catch fire and explode. But life insurance? For vampires? Who the hell would underwrite such a thing?

Well, as we all know now, the 2009 Vampire Anti-Discrimination Act added vampires to the already long list of people against whom one may not legally discriminate. This didn't merely add them to the list of people covered by Officially Forbidden Hate Crime statutes, but guaranteed a right to medical treatment, property title, and even contained a subsidy for banks to have office hours after dark.

Of course, this all happened more or less at the same time that Healthcare Reform legislation was passed, and mostly nobody noticed. However, for the first time ever, vampires could get healthcare insurance and not be excluded for their pre-existing condition. Not that they actually needed healthcare insurance, being immune to all mortal ills with the exception of an unfortunate allergy to garlic and silverware -- not to mention pointed sticks -- but still, it was a nice public-relations gesture and doubtless would get a nice little niche voting bloc lined up solidly on the side of the Democrats.

Along with the access to healthcare insurance, came access to Term Life Insurance.

Of course, right about this time there was a new development in the Term Life business. From an article in the New York Times:
After the mortgage business imploded last year, Wall Street investment banks began searching for another big idea to make money. They think they may have found one.

The bankers plan to buy “life settlements,” life insurance policies that ill and elderly people sell for cash — $400,000 for a $1 million policy, say, depending on the life expectancy of the insured person. Then they plan to “securitize” these policies, in Wall Street jargon, by packaging hundreds or thousands together into bonds. They will then resell those bonds to investors, like big pension funds, who will receive the payouts when people with the insurance die.

The earlier the policyholder dies, the bigger the return — though if people live longer than expected, investors could get poor returns or even lose money.
[ ... ] ("Wall Street Pursues Profit in Bundles of Life Insurance", Anderson, Jenny, New York Times, September 5, 2009)

Look at it this way: you're a 70-year-old vampire with legal papers to prove it, and you use the papers and some elderly person you hire who will take the physical. You pay rather high premiums for fairly crappy coverage, or so the insurer thinks. However, you have a life-expectancy that's effectively limitless, and so when you sell the policy as a "life settlement", Wall Street will jump at the chance, and since Wall Street types see this as "the next big thing", they'll probably bid up the price on the tranches.
“We’re hoping to get a herd stampeding after the first offering,” said one investment banker not authorized to speak to the news media.

Of course, any sensible vampire takes a very long-term approach to investment. You get a bunch of vampires together, and you make a pact. You all take out enough such policies and take enough such "life settlements" so as to pump up the bubble.

And then -- not unlike Goldman Sachs, which pretty much invented "commoditized debt obligations", reselling tiny slices of mortgages bundled together as "tranches" -- when the market starts to go south, you're very well positioned to massively short the market, and the faster and harder you can make it fall, the more and faster you make money. Just like Goldman Sachs.

But you don't have to short it hard and fast; you can short it out in dribbles, and as long as you can maintain a short position, no matter how shallow, as long as the market remains and shorting is legal, you can continue to make money.

And all you have to do to keep doing that is to stay alive. For vampires, that's as easy as sitting down to dinner.


We should note in passing that sitting down for dinner was, in the modern day, rather a different proposition than from times past. In the modern day, no victimization was involved, no more than would be involved in eating a bowl of gelatin. Otherwise it might have been a bit difficult to pass that anti-discrimination law, buried as an amendment in 50,000 pages of legislation or not.


The problem here is one of so-called Perverse Incentives.

The vampires -- and back in the traditional days, their victims -- were certainly familiar with the concept of "perverse incentives". After all, their saliva contained peptides that activated the pleasure centers of their victims in a way that no known pharmaceutical could, although a combination of cocaine, valium, and new motherhood with a baby at the breast were altogether said to approach the experience. The victims had an extreme incentive, and a very perverse one, to make sure that the vampires got fed; it was a an effectively unbreakable addiction, this perverse incentive. One of the definite social positives of the anti-discrimination legislation was a curtailment of the sadly booming trade in vampire spit.

Yet the vampires hadn't been able to find any perverse incentives to exploit from their side of the "life settlement" Term Life commoditization trade, other than a rather long-view opportunity to get into position for an extended short trade on a market that their personal longevity would assure would spend a long time in an orderly and predictable decline.

Of course, there was the other side of the equation.

Vampires were rather notable for following whatever rules they understood. It wasn't that they could not enter a house uninvited; it was that it was against the rules. It wasn't that they couldn't cross running water; it was that it was against the rules to ruin perfectly good shoes by doing so. History shows, however, that time and time again, they themselves could suffer and die at the hands of people who were perfectly willing to break the rules. Sneak into someone's house, uninvited, and kill them while they're sleeping? Definitely against the rules -- especially the part about "uninvited" -- yet that was how they got "got": people broke the rules. Despite all of the history and legend -- not to mention ritualized cinematic gloating -- the vampires couldn't even much think outside of the rules, and didn't expect that anyone else would, either.

The "perverse incentive" from the other side of the equation was definitely against the rules.

In the same way that investors in "commoditized term life insurance" would lose money if the insured lived too long, if the insured died before the actuaries (and the investment strategy) predicted, the investors made money. And the faster the insured parties died, the faster the investors made money, and the more of it they made.

The perverse incentive was embedded in the structure of the commodity, and the incentive was to murder.

And as the commodities were sold as tranches of multiple policies, one murder alone wouldn't do much for the investor's position.

If you were invested in a commodity that was one thousand slices of one-thousandth each of the individual "life settlement" term insurance original covered sellers, that meant that to get a full expected payout, every single original covered seller had to die (on average, or on the mean) at or before the break-even date, the life expectancy (on average or at mean) posited by the actuaries.

The actuaries had actually posted very accurate figures; nobody would have opened up and gone into the "life settlement" business, otherwise. Yet as new elements of the 2009 Omnibus Healthcare Reform Act took effect, since there was no legitimate excuse for collecting information about pre-existing conditions, it became increasingly impossible for any of the investors to predict on an individual basis the longevity potential of any of the covered "life settlement" sellers. That was, in any case, not merely an effect but an intention of the "tranches", the repackaging of tiny slices of a thousand or more individual instances, be those mortgages or life-insurance policies.

Wall Street was taking bets on how long people would live, and expected to make money at it.

Vampires were taking bets that they'd live a lot longer than Wall Street expected.

Finally Wall Street caught on to this, although it took a decade or two... and when they realized that not only was the investment community not going to profit on the business model, but that a class of individuals comprising perhaps one-thousandth of the investors would be concentrating all profit-taking into their hands alone, they looked at the facts and made decisions.

The reason they could not profit was because vampires lived longer than other people.

The profits were concentrated into the vampires because they lived much longer than was expected when actuaries set the values of the life-insurance premiums and the "life settlement" sums.

Get rid of the vampires, and get rich! And besides, they'd already invested most of the government-worker and public-servant retirement funds into the scheme, and had to find a way to make money or a combination of Feds and state and local police might come around asking why their retirement funds were losing value, and the law being the law, it was the brokers and Wall Street who would be in the public eye and take the blame. Nobody would blame it on the vampires, they'd blame it on the idiots who sold vampires life-insurance.

And so, in the same way that before the start of the 2007/2008 Housing Bubble Collapse, firms offering tranches of "commoditized debt obligations" bought up and took control of the Bond Rating outfits that were supposed to blow the whistle on them, life-insurance underwriters' agents and lackeys began to buy up the watchdog firms contracted by State and Federal agencies to ensure that unauthorized actors didn't take out life-insurance on unsuspecting third-parties... and the investors all insured the vampires to about the same amount -- and more -- that the vampires intended to make, payable in tranches to those investors.

Thus was born the unfortunately under-regulated trade in Commoditized Death Obligations.




More to come?

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

My 12 Pregnant Girlfriends, or, Cometh Ye Mass Extinction

Dear Diary: Today was my Monthly Ritual Humiliation and Inevitable Comeuppance From Society, generally referred to by ordinary people as Thomas's trip to the Twinbrook Post Office to pay his goddamn bills.

The Post Office, and Yours Truly, of course, are all victims of a school of architectural design and interior-space planning which views human beings (or anything reasonably approximating them) as cattle.

Cattle, I don't suppose I need to mention, may think they're having a pretty good life... up until they are all herded into line.

I don't suppose I should need to mention that every time I get into a line that puts people in arm's reach in front of me, and leaves people behind me also in arm's reach, I feel a bit like that cow in the video that saw the one in front of it get the stunner.

Doubtless most people would just call me "paranoid" and wouldn't bother to question whether it was just me being a Freak and oddball weirdo, or whether I might perhaps have had some experiences in the past that have so traumatized me that total discomfort in comparable situations is inevitable. Well, get a load of this, and ask yourself after you've seen it, just how comfortable you are standing around like cattle in a chute, hemmed in by rails or counters to the sides, and with people pushing in from behind:

I keep expecting to be standing in line at my Monthly Ritual Humiliation and have the villain of this flick get up behind me while I'm standing at the counter dealing with the cheerful clerk, with my money on the counter and this guy caerfully sliding across the counter with his bottled air and stunner right behind me. So, like the cattle in the chutes, I pretend that I cannot hear what I hear nor smell what I smell, nor do I allow myself to wonder if perhaps this one time the cattle chute doesn't lead to the feeding pens, but perhaps to another place entirely.

Then again, I have to go get money orders to pay my bills, and like the cattle, go whither the prod leadeth.


This being the month leading up to Hallowe'en, that celebration of how thin is the veil that separates the living from the dead, I figure that if I can add anything to the generic creepiness, I might as well.

It's not hard for me to do: for me, every day is Hallowe'en, or might as well be. Scary monsters everywhere, dontcha know.

There's no question that I probably didn't do myself any favors, having always had a tendency to understand that to err on the side of caution is still to err (and that therefor even more caution is advisable, in all things), when I developed a taste for Modern Horror Fiction.

Of course I went through the phase of watching old scary movies -- not these stupid modern adrenaline-jerkers, but rather the really creepy old ones -- and reading various horror classics. I became quite fond of not merely the creepiness of Saki's short stories, but also of the elegance of their structure and style.

And of course, who could manage to grow up in the US without having seen a dozen film adaptations of the classic novel Dracula?

The novel, oddly enough, mostly struck me as a book about the superstituous fanaticism of Van Helsing; Dracula himself didn't scare me much if all you needed to keep him away was some running water and maybe a crucifix. But some people -- the majority of the readers who were scared half to death by reading this -- were less interested in dealing with a problem, and were more interested in freaking out over the existence of the problem... fictional though the problem might be.

Dracula didn't much scare me, but Van Helsing and his friends did.

Why? Simply because they were focusing on the wrong issues, in my humble opinion. By concentrating on him being an undead fiend from hell and a close confidant of the powers of darkness, etc., they almost totally overlooked the real danger of the Count, which wasn't that he had a rather thoughtless technique of returning repeatedly to the same victim until they died and themselves became vampires. The real problem was that if this went on, he'd make several vampires, they would make several vampires each, each of those would make several vampires, and before you know it, there's nothing left except for vampires, and presumably they all starve to death.

By concentrating on superstition and the generally unstated theological implications, they almost completely failed to do the math. That as they were superstitious and delusion, that they would also fail to examine the logic, that goes without saying.


A friend of mine once told me that they'd actually had an assignment in their 7th-grade math class on the subject of Geometric Progressions, which used the Dracula legend as a problem.

They were given the postulates that one bite from a vampire causes the victim to turn into a vampire, who would then bite one person a night for the rest of time. (Evidently it was considered too complex for 7th-grades to factor in attrition rates of vampires tracked and killed by hunters.)

Really, if you fold in a lot of assumptions -- easily done by not asking many questions nor thinking about much of anything -- it doesn't take long to do the math, and the math says that it doesn't take long before you run out of people.

That people are rather complex and tend to notice things and adapt their behavior doesn't factor into this simple 7th-grade math problem.

But if you bother to actually think about how people would react to such a thing, assuming that it's even possible, you can come up with some pretty good science-fiction and/or horror stories:

But having come up with some good stories, please don't forget to do the math.

And having done the math about the vampires, don't forget to do the math about the humans, too.


And now for some fiction:

When you are as awesome a player as I am, it's only natural that you are going to have more than one girlfriend.

And when you're as much of a hustler as I am, you can probably afford it.

It takes real talent, and a job that allows you to travel, to not just be a two-timer, but to be a 12-timer. You've heard those stories about the old sailors that had a wife and children in every port? Well, that would be me, but I have at least two girlfriends in every major city with an international airport. And as I get paid quite well and travel all of the time, and as I like to party and I'm single and good looking, I'm not just a two-timer, I'm a transnational two-timer in at least 20 cities.

Well, I just didn't count on my good luck so far, getting suddenly translated into getting the "you are gonna be a daddy" call from 12 different women all in one week...

The funny thing is, this is fiction only in the use of first-person narrative.

This sort of thing actually happens:
[ ... ]
"He's got child support obligations across the country, and he's got zero income," attorney Randall M. Kessler told Judge Clarence Seeliger. [Former NFL star Travis] Henry also has other expenses. He was arrested last month in an alleged cocaine deal, and was released after posting a $400,000 bond.

Seeliger set the child support payments last year, when Henry was working as a running back. The judge also ordered Henry to establish a $250,000 trust fund by last spring. The judge's order noted that Henry had squandered money, spending $100,000 for a car and $146,000 for jewelry, and said the fund was required as backup should Henry fail to make payments [...]



So, is Travis Henry the irresponsible Count Dracula of normal human reproduction? Will his children and their descendants take over the world?

Not at all, not within the normal context of normal humanity any time up until about the year 1960, which the Birth Control Pill was first widely available. Until the 1980s, for example, the average female in Mexico gave live birth to above 8 children. My paternal grandmother had something like 12 live births, though not all survived.

Yet do the math: if one man has 12 kids, and each of them has 12 kids, and each of those has 12 kids, that would be as third generation of 1728 offspring, plus the 144 in the second generation, plus the 12 in the first generation... 1884 people. 15 years is a "standard generation". Consider them all as having been in the position of all being male, turning 15 and becoming remarkable sleep-arounds, and this becomes 1884 people spread over 45 years, with 1728 of them about to turn 15 (all male, for the sake of the argument and a simple math problem) and that starts to look like a bit over 20,000 new mouths to feed along with the nearly 2000 ones that have been eating three square meals a day.

Now, for extra bonus points, calculate how much food they eat, and then calculate how much oil it takes to plant, fertilize, harvest, ship, store, and deliver that food.

The really sad thing is this: at the time my friend was getting her "vampire problem" in her math class in the DC public school system in 7th grade, in that same year, the average age of first birth in the District was 10th-grade, about the time kids start to become capable of doing the "extra bonus points" research and calculation on their own with minimal guidance.

That was 1983, when 56 percent of all births in the District of Columbia were to unwed children.

And at 15 years per generation, that 3rd generation -- as in the problem given above -- is just now coming of reproductive age.

And given that there are 6 billions of people on the planet, with another billion added every 12 years, for extra bonus points and math credit, calculate how much oil will be needed to plant, fertilize, harvest, transport, store, deliver, and prepare all of the food that will be needed by the year 2050.

I think you've got more important things to worry about than bloodsuckers.